比尔盖茨:记住这三个数据将帮助你理解这个世界

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比尔·盖茨近期表示,记住所以个多数据将帮助你理解所以世界。

OurWorldInData.org是我最喜欢的网站之一。所以网站设在牛津大学,利用关于从健康、人口增长到战争、环境和能源等方方面面的统计数据,让你深刻了解世界各地所以人的生活条件正在存在怎样的变化。我邀请了网站创始人——牛津大学的经济学家麦克斯·罗瑟(Max Roser)——跟所以人分享1个多多多每每其他人都应了解的事实。以下的内容由麦克斯撰写。

在过去的几年里,通过快速的在线搜索,所以人很容易就能找到全球发展的所以重要数据。让你 现在找到所需信息变得这麼 容易,所以所以人认为记住那些数据这麼 意义。所以人说:“需用的那我再查阅下就好了!”

我不同意所以说法。是的,对所以细节,你需用的那我再去搜索数据的确合情合理。让你 对于宏大的全球发展间题,了解目前所以人生活条件的基本数据,以及过去几十年中所以人想看 的变化趋势非常重要。了解那些全球变化的事实,能让你提供每日新闻的背景,还能让你真正理解你所掌握的新信息。让你 ,这也必定是政治辩论的基础,只有那我所以人有有助于去讨论,作为1个多多多社会整体所以人应该做那些以及不应该做那些。

让你 ,我列了1个多多多简短的清单,所含三条让让让你记住的关于全球生活条件的事实。其中每一根都描述了当前的情況和变化趋势。

事实1:自19150年以来,儿童死亡人数已从每年1150万人下降到每年1500万人

想象一下看着每每其他人的孩子死去会多么痛苦。

让你 试想一下,每分钟所以情況就会存在在大约11位父母身上。这是平均每分钟的五岁以下儿童死亡数字。24小时内的每分钟否有 11名儿童死亡,那每天死亡人数累计为151150人,即每年有5150万名儿童死亡。

所以人需用接受所以点吗?世界可是那我的吗?

显然否有 。所以人有很强的能力去推动积极的改变。请看下面的图表。联合国数据问所以人,现在每年有5150万儿童死亡;一块儿数据也向所以人表明,在20世纪150和150年代,世界每年儿童死亡的数据为1150万。

所以人比较慢想看 当前世界进步的1个多多多关键导致 是,所以人问你过去有多糟糕。

这有四种 说法否有 对的:所以世界比过去要好得多,所以世界仍然很糟糕。

为了记住所以情況,我需用一块儿知道两边的数据:当一帮人说所以人还上能 坐下来放松一下,让你 所以世界比过去好得多,我会指出每分钟仍有11个多多多孩子死去的事实。所以人只有接受现在那我1个多多多世界。而当我在这场悲剧肩头感到绝望时,我会记得在过去的五十年里,所以人把每年儿童死亡的数量从1150万减少到了5150万。

让你 ,我记得目前的儿童死亡率以及所以人想看 的变化趋势:儿童死亡人数正在下降,150年前儿童死亡人数是现在的3.5倍。但儿童死亡间题仍然非常普遍,平均每分钟否有 11名儿童夭折。

事实2:自19150年以来,生育率下降了一半

全球人口的比较慢增长很多不可阻挡。所以人好的反义词知道所以点,是让你 在过去几十年中,所以人让你 想看 全球人口变化将终结人口的快速增长。让所以人来看看数据。

下面的图表显示了认识世界人口增长情況的关键统计指标——全球生育率,即世界上每名妇女的平均子老婆数。当生育率接近2,这麼 每对夫妇平均被大约1个多多多孩子取代,人口增长缓慢。让你 直到20世纪150年代末,每个妇女平均有五个以上的孩子。这麼 高的生育率,人口增长就放慢。当时,每年的世界人口增长率为2%。

避孕工具的供应使得父母让你好多个孩子就生好多个孩子。所以数字随着所以人收入的增加而变化。从几十年的人口统计学研究中,所以人了解到老婆在获得更好的教育和更好的就业让你 否有决定少生孩子。所以人还知道,当儿童死亡率下降,家庭很多担心所以人的孩子会死亡时,会从一开始英文就决定少生孩子。

妇女生活条件和儿童健康水平的提高,有有助于世界各地的生育率比较慢下降。事实上,在过去的150年里,全球生育率让你 下降了一半,从每个妇女生育超过五个孩子减少为只有2.五个孩子。在过去的150年里,世界人口增长率也下降了一半,仅略高于1%。

我所记住的人口增长统计数据问你,人口的快速增长将在本世纪内开始英文。在过去150年中,全球生育率已从每名妇女生育五个子女降至每名妇女过低2.五个子女。五十年来,生育率让你 减半。

事实3:1990至2015年间,每天有13.7万人脱离极端贫困

生活在贫困中导致 生活中所以最重要的东西都遥不可及。贫困人口往往过低体面的住房和基本的医疗服务,让你 常常买不起足够的食物。

每天需用靠只有1.90国际元(international-dollar,有四种 还上能 校正国家之间价格差异和通货膨胀的假定货币)收入生活的所以人,被认为存在“极端贫困”情況。

对于贫困的所以定义,用“极端贫困”所以词来概括显然非常恰当:这随便说说是一根非常低的贫困线。

当你问所以人世界否有在对抗极端贫困方面获得了进展时,所以人大多数人相信情況正在恶化,相信生活在极端贫困中的世界人口数量正在上升。

但事实恰恰相反,极端贫困人口的数量和比例否有 下降:

1990年,18.6亿人每天收入过低1.9国际元,占世界人口比例超过三分之一。25年后,极端贫困人口减少了一半以上,降至7.06亿,也可是十每每其他人中只1个多多多多。

这是1个多多多非常巨大的转变。这导致 过去25年中,平均每一天生活在极端贫困中的人数都比那我减少了13.7万人。过去25年里,每一天都那我还上能 有那我的新闻标题:“从昨天到今天,极端贫困人口减少了13.7万人。”

这可是我记得的统计数字:今天,每十每每其他人中否有 1个多多多生活在极端贫困之中,全球范围内有7.06亿。数量之多令人无法接受。但所以人也应知道,趋势正在朝着好的方向发展。极端贫困人口的数量正在下降。终结极端贫困是让你 的。

记住所以个多关于世界的事实让让让你让你起了为那些我认为参与全球发展怪怪的要。关于世界现状的统计数字表明,所以人只有满足于世界目前的情況,让你 关于全球变化的统计数字问所以人,创造1个多多多更美好的世界是让你 的。儿童死亡人数正在下降,人口比较慢增长的挑战不用无限期地持续,极端贫困人口的数量正在减少。

让所以人继续朝着所以方向前进,过去的成功应该鼓舞着所以人为取得更多进步而努力。

Memorizing these three statistics will help you understand the world

One of my favorite websites is OurWorldInData.org. Based at the University of Oxford, it uses statistics—on everything from health and population growth to war, the environment, and energy—to give you phenomenal insight into how living conditions are changing around the world. I asked its founder, Oxford economist Max Roser, to share three facts from the site that everyone should know. Here’s what Max had to say.

–Bill Gates

In the past few years, it has become easy to find many of the important statistics on global development with a quick online search. And since it is now so easy to find the information you need, many argue that it doesn’t make sense to actually remember these statistics. ‘Just look them up when you need them!’ they say.

I disagree with this. Yes, for some details, it makes sense to just search for them when you need them. But for the large global developments, it is important to know some basic statistics that describe living conditions currently and the direction of change that we have seen over the past few decades. Knowing the facts on global changes gives you the context for the daily news and allows you to make sense of new information that you learn. And it must be the basis for political debate, so that we can discuss what we should and shouldn’t do as a society.

And so I compiled a short list of three facts about global living conditions that I want to remember. Each of them describes the current situation and the direction of change.

Fact #1: Since 19150, child deaths have plummeted from 20 million a year to 6 million a year.

Imagine how awful it must be to see your child die.

Then consider that every minute this happens to about 11 parents. This is the number of children, younger than five years of age, who die—on average—every single minute. Eleven deaths every minute for 24 hours add up to 15,1150 deaths per day, or 5.6 million deaths per year.

Do we just have to accept that? Is that just how the world is?

Clearly no. We are very much able to drive positive change. Look at the chart below. The same UN data that shows us that 5.6 million are dying today also shows us that in the 19150s and 150s the world saw around 20 million children dying every year.

One key reason why we struggle to see progress in the world today is that we do not know how very bad the past was.

Both are true at the same time: The world is much better than in the past and it is still awful.

To bring this to mind I need to know both statistics: When someone says we can sit back and relax because the world is in a much better place, I point out that 11 children are still dying every minute. We cannot accept the world as it is today. And when I feel hopeless in the face of this tragedy, I remember that we reduced annual child deaths from 20 million to 5.6 million in the last fifty years.

So I am remembering the current extent of child mortality and the direction of change that we have seen: The number of child deaths is falling; there were 3.5-times as many child deaths 150 years ago. But child deaths are still extremely common; 11 children are dying every minute.

Fact #2: Since 19150, the fertility rate has fallen by half.

The chart below shows the key statistic to understand about world population growth: the global fertility rate—the average number of children per woman in the world. When the fertility rate is close to 2 children per woman, so that every couple is on average replaced by about two children, population growth is slow. But until the late 19150s, each woman had on average more than 5 children, and at such high fertility rates, population growth is fast. At that time the world population increased by 2 percent every year.

The availability of contraceptives allows parents to have only as many children as they want. And that number changes as people’s income goes up. From decades of demographic research, we know that women decide to have fewer children as they get access to better education and better opportunities in the job market. We also know that when child mortality falls, so that families do not need to fear that their children will die, they consequently decide to have fewer children in the first place.

Improvements in conditions for women and the health of children have driven a rapid reduction in fertility rates across the world. In fact, the global fertility rate has halved in the last 150 years, from more than 5 children per woman to fewer than 2.5 children. The world population growth rate has also halved in the last 150 years and is just above 1 percent.

The statistic that I remember on population growth is the one that tells me that rapid population growth is coming to an end in this century. In the last 150 years the global fertility rate has fallen from 5 children per woman to less than 2.5 children per woman. In fifty years the fertility rate has halved.

Fact #3: 137,000 people escaped extreme poverty every day between 1990 and 2015.

Living in poverty means that many of the most essential things in life are out of reach. People in poverty tend to lack decent shelter and basic healthcare, and they often struggle to afford adequate food supplies.

People are considered to live in‘extreme poverty’if they have to get by on less than 1.90 international-dollars per day, which is a currency that corrects for price differences between countries and inflation.

In this definition of poverty, the term extreme poverty is clearly appropriate: this is a very low poverty line.

When you ask people whether the world is making progress against extreme poverty, the majority of us believe things are getting worse—that the number of people in extreme poverty in the world is rising.

The opposite is true. Both the number and the share of people in extreme poverty is falling:

In 1990, 1.86 billion people were living on less than 1.90 international-$ per day—more than every third person in the world. Twenty-five years later, the number of people living in extreme poverty has more than halved to 706 million, every tenth person.

This is a very large transformation. It means that, on average, every day for the past 25 years 137,000 fewer people were living in extreme poverty than the day before. On every day in the last 25 years there could have been a newspaper headline reading,“The number of people in extreme poverty fell by 137,000 since yesterday.”

This is the statistic I remember: Today every 10th person is living in extreme poverty—706 million people. An unacceptably large number of people. But we should also know that the trend is moving in the right direction. The number of people in extreme poverty is falling. It is possible to end extreme poverty.

Remembering these facts about the world brings to mind why I think it is important to get engaged in global development. The statistics on the current state of the world make clear that we cannot be complacent about the world as it is today. Especially because progress is uneven, and in sub-Saharan Africa progress has been slower, but is not absent. The statistics on global change over time tell us that it is possible to work for a better world. The number of child deaths is dropping. The challenges of rapid population growth will not continue indefinitely. And the number of people in extreme poverty is falling.

Let’s continue in this direction. Our past successes should encourage us to work for more progress.